Ukraine faces uncertainty over Trump’s potential impact on conflict with Russia

In Ukraine, uncertainty surrounds the potential impact of Donald Trump’s presidency on the ongoing conflict with Russia. The war situation has been dire, with winter expected to exacerbate conditions as Russia has already targeted Ukraine’s electricity and heating infrastructure in several regions. This could lead to power outages lasting up to 20 hours.

Justas Stasevskij, a journalist based in Kyiv, reports a growing sense of war fatigue among the populace. Many are hopeful that Trump’s return could inspire a glimmer of optimism for peace on terms favorable to Ukraine. Military science expert Ilmari Käihkö notes that, while Trump is seen predominantly as a threat in Europe, in Ukraine he is perceived as a potentially key ally in the pursuit of peace.

Authorities have suggested that Trump’s rise could hasten the resolution of the conflict. However, how Trump intends to address the war remains ambiguous. Käihkö points out that Trump presents both a risk and an opportunity, as he could either drastically reduce support for Ukraine or intensify it. There is also the potential for Trump to alter the rules of engagement in the conflict.

For some time, Ukraine has expressed dissatisfaction with the level of support from Western allies, feeling it has only been enough to continue the war without being able to conclude it. Käihkö emphasizes that Europe also bears responsibility for influencing the progression of the war and should not place all blame on the United States.

A recent opinion poll indicated that 32% of Ukrainians would accept territorial concessions to Russia if it meant sustainable peace, a sharp increase from figures of 8-10% two years ago. However, Käihkö cautions that such surveys must be assessed critically, as they do not disclose the context of the questions asked. President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has stated Ukraine must strive for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict by next year, yet the concessions that may be required present a significant challenge. While the public is reluctant to fight, they are equally unwilling to concede to Russia, creating a potentially untenable situation.