Icelandic Met Office warns of increased seismic activity and potential volcanic eruption near Reykjanes Peninsula
The Icelandic Met Office has updated their projections, indicating an increased likelihood of seismic activity near the Reykjanes Peninsula over the next three weeks. There are high chances of a volcanic eruption or lava flow in Svartsengi, with even the town of Grindavík at risk.
According to the calculations, approximately 13 million cubic meters of magma have accumulated under Svartsengi. This volume is at the lower limit of the amount of magma needed to trigger a new lava flow or even a volcanic eruption, with the upper limit being around 19 million cubic meters.
Experience from the Kröflueldar eruptions has shown that as the number of lava flows increase, more magma and pressure are needed to initiate them. If we consider that around 20 million cubic meters are needed, as was the case before the eruption that started on May 29, this amount is expected to be reached within the next three to four weeks.
The Met Office has revised its hazard assessment for the Reykjanes Peninsula, now indicating a “considerable” risk for Area 4, where Grindavík is located, due to possible eruptions, lava flows, and gas pollution. The latest analysis of the evolution of eruption sites in the last eruptions of the Sundhnúksgígaröðinni suggests that volcanic activity is moving southward, closer to Grindavík, with each event.
Given these analyses and considering the significant seismic shifts that have occurred in Grindavík since November 2023, the hazard assessment reflects an increased likelihood of lava emerging within Area 4, Grindavík, in the next eruption. This hazard assessment remains in effect until July 23.