Iceland’s political landscape shifts ahead of 2024 parliamentary elections

In the lead-up to the 2024 parliamentary elections in Iceland, political analyst Ólafur Þ. Harðarson predicts a high likelihood of a four-party coalition government if results align with the latest Maskína poll, which suggests significant shifts in the political landscape. He noted that a two-party coalition is unlikely based on this polling data.

During a recent discussion, Harðarson indicated that two center-left coalitions could emerge: one involving the Social Democratic Alliance, Progressive Party, and People’s Party, totaling 36 seats, and another with the Progressive Party instead of the People’s Party, amounting to 34 seats. Alternatively, a center-right coalition could form with the Progressive Party, the Center Party, and the Independence Party, also featuring 34 seats.

The poll further indicated that the Left Green Movement and the Pirates may fail to secure seats in parliament, a scenario that raises concerns since it could lead to a significant percentage of votes becoming invalid. Harðarson emphasized that if these parties do not make it into parliament, approximately 15 to 16 percent of the overall votes would be lost.

The Social Democratic Alliance and the Progressive Party are currently leading in the polls, combining for a 20 percent increase from the previous elections, while the Center Party has seen a threefold increase in support. Should the poll’s predictions hold, the parliament would comprise six parties rather than the existing eight, with the potential for an additional party to join.

Harðarson highlighted that these developments would fundamentally alter the balance of power in Iceland’s political system, although he cautioned that it is still early, indicating that the situation is dynamic and subject to change as the elections draw near.