Experts assess implications of Hassan Nasrallah’s death for Lebanon and Iran

Experts in foreign policy view the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as a significant event for the Middle East and beyond. According to Hannu Juusola, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Helsinki, Nasrallah has played a pivotal role in Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon for decades and has been instrumental in Iran’s broader alliances in the region.

“Hezbollah is certainly in internal crisis right now. They have lost a significant portion of their key leadership in a short time, and Nasrallah’s situation is a separate issue,” Juusola noted. He emphasized that Nasrallah had achieved a mythical status and had dramatically influenced Hezbollah’s role. “This increases the pressure on Hezbollah to take vengeance through all means available,” he said.

Olli Ruohomäki, a senior visiting expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, anticipates more strikes in the near future. He previously indicated that recent targeted attacks were likely orchestrated by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. “We will see more such surgical strikes aimed at eliminating Hezbollah’s military commanders and potentially other political leaders,” he remarked.

Both experts highlighted the potential implications for Iran, which has lost a critical regional ally with Nasrallah’s death. Juusola pointed out, “For Iran, Hezbollah may be a more significant actor than Hamas,” suggesting pressure on Iran to respond to maintain credibility.

Ruohomäki warned that Nasrallah’s death might reduce the likelihood of Israeli ground invasions unless Hezbollah retaliates forcefully. Juusola added that if Hezbollah stages significant attacks resulting in numerous casualties, it would almost certainly provoke a solidified Israeli ground response.

Both experts regard Nasrallah as an iconic figure among Hezbollah supporters, combining military, political, religious, and spiritual leadership. Juusola noted the deep reverence some supporters had for Nasrallah, seeing him as a father figure whose demise represents a substantial blow to his followers.