Deep low forecast to peak earlier, with gales on Thursday

A deep low-pressure system is now expected to reach its peak on Thursday afternoon rather than Friday morning, with very strong winds likely ahead of its front, mbl.is reports.

Meteorologist Einar Sveinbjörnsson said on the weather website Blika.is that forecast maps had changed significantly over the past two days. The system’s centre may track farther west than previously expected.

One forecast model, ECMWF, predicts a less intense low than initially expected, at 956 hectopascals around midday on Thursday. The AIFS artificial intelligence forecast shows a deeper system arriving about six hours earlier, with its centre off Greenland’s east coast.

Sveinbjörnsson said that track would be favourable for Iceland. He noted that deep lows with a similar lead-up often end up circling in that location, but said very strong southeast or easterly winds were still likely ahead of the front.