Greens and Moderates gain in first post-election poll

The Green Party and the Moderates have gained support in the first opinion poll since Sweden’s election, while the Liberals have fallen below the parliamentary threshold, according to an October survey by Verian published by SVT.

The Green Party rose from 6.1 per cent in the election to 7.1 per cent in the poll, a statistically significant increase. Verian’s polling director, Per Söderpalm, said the party may have benefited from keeping a restrained profile during government-formation talks.

SVT domestic politics commentator Elisabeth Marmorstein said the Greens appeared more reasonable than the Centre Party and the Left Party, which have drawn attention for their positions and demands in the negotiations.

The Moderates also recorded a statistically significant rise, from 19.9 per cent in the election to 22.3 per cent, their highest level in more than five years. Söderpalm said the increase was probably mainly due to Moderate voters returning after casting tactical votes for the Liberals.

The Liberals fell from 5.3 per cent to 3.7 per cent, putting them below the parliamentary threshold again. The Sweden Democrats stood at 17.2 per cent, leaving the Moderates with a 5.1 percentage-point lead, their largest over the party since 2018.

Overall, the poll was close to the election result, with no major shifts between political blocs. The survey was conducted from September 28 to October 11 and was based on about 3,000 interviews with members of the Sifo panel, supplemented by phone interviews with people aged 85 and over. The question asked was which party respondents would vote for if an election were held today.