SVT projects opposition majority in Sweden’s 2026 election

The Tidö parties will not win a majority in Sweden’s 2026 parliamentary election, according to a projection by SVT. The opposition parties are projected to win the most seats.

“The probability of a turnaround at this stage is so low that we dare to state that the opposition will receive the most seats in this election,” SVT reporter Fouad Youcefi said.

Counting is continuing for late-arriving advance votes and votes from abroad. Fewer than 50 electoral districts remain to be counted, although several cities, including Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö, have not yet been included. The counting in those cities may not take place until Thursday.

During Wednesday evening, one seat repeatedly shifted between the Tidö parties and the opposition. The opposition’s lead alternated between 176 to 173 and 175 to 174 seats.

SVT’s election projection now assesses, with at least 99.9 percent probability, that the opposition parties Social Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party and Green Party will win a majority.

However, the final seat could be decided by a very narrow margin. If it goes to the Tidö parties, the balance of power would be extremely close, Youcefi said.

A turnaround is considered highly unlikely because the Tidö parties would need to outperform the opposition by an average of 26 percentage points in every remaining district.

How SVT makes its projection

SVT’s projection is based on a statistical model that uses early results to calculate the likely final outcome. SVT worked with researchers and mathematicians to map Sweden’s approximately 6,600 electoral districts, including the types of voters living in each district.

The model identifies voting patterns among different districts and voter groups. It also takes the counting of late-arriving advance votes and votes from abroad into account.

SVT says it has simulated a large number of election results. Once about 10 percent of the districts have been counted, the model is typically off by only a few tenths of a percentage point for each party.