Valu misses Sweden’s close election margin

Sweden’s first preliminary election result showed an almost even race between the blocs, with a difference of 0.4 percentage points, SVT reported. Few opinion polls predicted such a close result, and SVT’s own Valu survey presented a significantly different picture on election night.

When Valu was released at 8 p.m., it showed a 4.5 percentage point gap between the blocs, prompting celebrations among the opposition. Those celebrations faded when the preliminary result later showed a margin of just 0.4 points.

Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, the election researcher responsible for Valu, said the survey’s main purpose was to accurately estimate support for the eight individual parties, rather than the blocs as a whole.

“The survey is not designed to estimate the blocs, but individual parties,” he said.

Valu’s difference from the final result was 0.53 percentage points per party. Small errors for individual parties can produce a larger discrepancy when the parties are added together into blocs, Ekengren Oscarsson said.

This year’s Valu was based on responses from more than 13,000 voters, the highest participation to date. Ekengren Oscarsson said it was the third most accurate Valu conducted, adding that the survey design could probably not come much closer to the result.

Verian underestimated the Moderates

Verian’s final poll showed a 5.6 percentage point difference between the blocs, down from 8.2 points in an earlier measurement. The change indicated a trend towards a closer result.

Per Söderpalm, Verian’s head of opinion research and media analysis, said the midpoint of the institute’s final polling period was September 7. This may have excluded factors that influenced the final days of the campaign, including final debates and the prime ministerial debate.

“We also saw the trend towards a closer race strengthen towards the end,” Söderpalm said.

Another possible explanation was that the Moderates were underestimated, particularly among younger voters. Younger people respond to opinion polls at lower rates and are therefore more difficult to predict, according to Söderpalm.

Young voters difficult to predict

Indikator recorded a difference of about 1.3 percentage points per bloc, which the institute said fell within its margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

“You cannot become completely certain, but seven of the eight parties are within our estimate,” said Per Oleskog Tryggvason, Indikator’s head of opinion research.

Indikator also underestimated the Moderates’ late gains and said young voters were particularly difficult to pin down.

The polling institutes will now review their work. Verian said it may examine its weighting and methods to better capture voting patterns among younger voters.