Finland’s French nuclear deterrent link could unsettle adversaries

Finland’s leadership has announced that the country will join France’s nuclear deterrent, a move that could increase uncertainty among potential adversaries about the scope of Finland’s overall deterrence, Yle reported.

Matti Pesu, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said the decision would not have immediate concrete effects. However, it could force potential adversaries to consider how France might respond if Finland were threatened.

France has deliberately kept its nuclear policy ambiguous, Pesu said. Its nuclear doctrine has for some time included a European dimension, but France has not specified what that means in practice.

Although Finland is not directly joining a French nuclear umbrella, France’s deterrent could become a flexible element within Europe’s broader deterrence arrangements. Within NATO, nuclear decisions are viewed as involving three centres of power: Washington, London and Paris.

Pesu noted that Finland is already covered by NATO’s nuclear deterrence. NATO’s deterrence consists of conventional weapons, missile defence and nuclear weapons, although this is not stated entirely directly in the alliance’s strategic guidance.

The practical implications of France’s nuclear deterrent for Finland will be examined by a bilateral steering group. Pesu said the group would initially assess Finland’s security environment and how France’s deterrent could affect it.

In the future, Finland could potentially take part in French nuclear exercises or provide support with conventional weapons systems. French nuclear-capable fighter jets could also be temporarily stationed in Finland, even if nuclear weapons themselves were not brought to the country.

Pesu calls for Nordic cooperation

Pesu said he regretted that the Nordic countries had joined France’s initiative at different times. Planning is also expected to take place through bilateral discussions with France, but he called for greater Nordic cooperation.

He said the Nordic countries cooperate closely and could be considered to form their own area of operations within NATO. He questioned whether the discussions should be conducted bilaterally for very long.

Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen said in a statement that France’s deterrent would not overlap with NATO’s deterrent. Pesu interpreted this as meaning that France and the countries involved did not intend to create an arrangement that would replace the nuclear deterrence provided largely by the United States through NATO.

Instead, the initiative would complement Europe’s deterrence arrangements and create new opportunities to increase European responsibility and activity on nuclear issues, Pesu said.