SVT forecast puts Swedish election blocs level

SVT’s election forecast puts the two blocs exactly level, with 175 seats for the Social Democrats, Left Party, Green Party and Centre Party, and 174 for the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals, SVT reported.

“It is excruciatingly close,” election researcher Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson said.

The Social Democrats appear headed for their worst result in a modern parliamentary election, according to the forecast. The Sweden Democrats also appear set to lose support for the first time in a parliamentary election.

SVT’s exit poll showed a clear difference between the blocs, but its forecast now indicates a dead heat. The Moderates are projected to become the second-largest party, while the Sweden Democrats are projected to become the third-largest.

How the forecast is calculated

SVT’s forecast uses a statistical model that takes early vote counts and calculates the likely final result.

SVT worked with researchers and mathematicians to map Sweden’s approximately 6,600 electoral districts and examine their demographics, including the types of voters living in each district. The model then identifies patterns in how different districts and voter groups vote.

Once polling stations close and electoral districts begin counting votes, the model tracks voting trends. When all variables are combined and applied across the country, it produces a forecast of the final result.

SVT said it has simulated numerous election outcomes. Once about 10 percent of the electoral districts have been counted, the model’s margin of error is only a few tenths of a percentage point for each party.

“I think this will shift throughout the evening,” Ekengren Oscarsson said.