Experts reject simple explanations for Sweden’s PISA decline

Swedish 15-year-olds have reached record-low results in the PISA assessment, but experts say no single factor explains the decline, SVT reports.

One in three Swedish 15-year-olds fails to meet the required standards in reading comprehension and mathematics, according to the latest PISA assessment. Several party leaders quickly offered explanations for the results, despite the Swedish National Agency for Education calling for further analysis.

SVT spoke to four experts and researchers, who said the results must be examined in greater depth. They agreed that several factors are likely contributing to the decline and that neither the policies of the current government, profits withdrawn by independent schools, nor screen time and reduced reading can individually be established as the main cause.

“PISA 2025 does not support any of the unequivocal explanations that have been put forward,” said Linda Fälth, professor of education at Linnaeus University. “The results instead point to several possible and interacting factors.”

Hanna Eklöf, a senior lecturer at Umeå University, said she did not believe either Swedish immigration policy or profits withdrawn by independent schools was the single most important explanation. She noted that Swedish pupils’ trend was very similar to trends in all Nordic countries and many other OECD countries.

Samuel Sollerman, a senior lecturer at Stockholm University, said the decline began before the latest change of government and that similar declines had occurred in many other countries. He said the claim could not be tested using PISA data alone.

The political explanations examined by SVT included Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson’s claim that the government had prioritised tax cuts for the wealthiest over staffing in schools, Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson’s reference to an international “screen pandemic”, and Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson’s suggestion that mass immigration was responsible.

The experts consulted by SVT were Hanna Eklöf of Umeå University, Linda Fälth of Linnaeus University, Ebba Henrekson of the Center for Educational Leadership and Excellence at the Stockholm School of Economics, and Samuel Sollerman of Stockholm University.