Liberals edge closer to Sweden’s parliamentary threshold

The Liberals have increased their support to 3.0 per cent and are approaching Sweden’s four per cent parliamentary threshold, according to a new SVT/Verian poll published by SVT. The survey also shows the Moderates at their lowest level in seven years.

The Liberals’ support rose by 1.1 percentage points, the only statistically significant change compared with the previous poll in August. Verian’s Per Söderpalm said the party appeared to have benefited from increased attention after Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson set a deadline for the Liberals to reach at least 3.5 per cent in opinion polls.

“It is actually more likely that the Liberals will enter parliament than that the Tidö parties will win the election,” Söderpalm said, referring to historical data.

Liberals gain ground late in campaign

The poll covered 20 August to 2 September, and the Liberals’ rise was particularly clear during the latter part of the period. The party was well above three per cent in the second week, narrowing the gap to the parliamentary threshold.

“It can happen quickly at the end of an election campaign,” Söderpalm said. He added that several parties had made strong late surges in previous election campaigns.

The Social Democrats received 29.2 per cent, with voters moving to the Left Party, the Greens, the Centre Party and the Liberals. The Sweden Democrats stood at 18.9 per cent, while the Moderates received 16.4 per cent, their lowest support in seven years.

The gap between the Tidö parties and the opposition was 8.2 percentage points, down from 10 points in the previous poll. During the final part of the survey period, the gap was just over six percentage points.

Verian’s poll was based on around 3,000 completed interviews with people in the Sifo panel. Respondents were aged 18 to 84, with telephone interviews conducted among people aged 85 and older. The survey asked which party respondents would vote for if an election were held that day.