Finance Ministry calculates Danish-background share could fall to 68.9 percent

A calculation by Denmark’s Ministry of Finance, reported by DR, shows that people of Danish background could make up 68.9 percent of Denmark’s total population in 2100 if immigration continues at current levels.

The calculation was requested by Mikkel Bjørn, a Danish People’s Party member of parliament. It indicates that the share of people with Danish background would fall from 82.3 percent in 2030 to 68.9 percent in 2100, while the shares of immigrants and their descendants would rise.

The figures, also reported by Berlingske, show the share of Western immigrants increasing from 5.7 percent in 2030 to 9.0 percent in 2100. The share of non-Western immigrants would rise from 7.7 percent to 10.9 percent.

Among descendants, the share of people with a Western background would increase from 0.9 percent in 2030 to 4.5 percent in 2100. The share of non-Western descendants would rise from 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent.

A mechanical scenario calculation

The calculation is based on average net immigration between 2019 and 2025.

The Finance Ministry stressed that it is a “mechanical scenario calculation”, not a forecast of the expected population trend. It does not take future changes in immigration and emigration into account.

Peter Fallesen, a research professor at the Rockwool Foundation, said there were therefore many unknown factors.

“Back in 2010, we could not predict the civil war in Syria, and in 2020 we could not foresee the war in Ukraine. Immigration also goes in the other direction. For example, people from Poland have now started leaving. So there are factors that we cannot include in this kind of projection,” he told Berlingske.