Vilborg predicts narrow no vote in EU membership referendum

The no side appeared set to win a referendum on reopening Iceland’s membership negotiations with the European Union, international politics expert Vilborg Ása Guðjónsdóttir told mbl.is.

“It looks as though the no side will take this. There would have to be a very unexpected swing for this to move to the yes side,” Vilborg said, adding that she had expected the result to be very close.

Earlier in the evening, she predicted a 52-48 result in either direction. She based her forecast on the Brexit vote, a referendum in Norway on EU membership in which an agreement was rejected, and Sweden’s decision to join the bloc.

“This is becoming something of a pattern. If referendums are very close, that seems to be the outcome,” she said, while stressing that this was speculation.

If voters ultimately reject reopening membership negotiations with the EU, foreign policy will remain on the agenda, Vilborg said, and probably to a greater extent than before.

“We do not know exactly what that will look like today. There will presumably be some kind of regular reassessment of the situation in line with international developments,” she said.