Iceland’s early voting surges ahead of EU referendum

Nearly 37,000 people had voted early on whether Iceland should resume European Union accession talks by noon on Wednesday, with timing, a high-profile issue and close polling among the factors behind the strong turnout, mbl.is reported.

A total of 36,946 people had voted nationwide by midday, and several indications suggest a new record could be set.

Comparable figures were last recorded in 2020, when Iceland held a presidential election in late June. Early voting was unusually high in that election, which Guðni Th. Jóhannesson won by a wide margin over Guðmundur Franklín Jónsson.

By the same point in the current process, 24,407 votes had been cast in the electoral district administered by the District Commissioner for the Capital Region. At the equivalent stage in 2020, the figure in that district was 25,734.

Five days before election day, nearly twice as many people have now voted early as had done so at the same point before the parliamentary election in November 2024 and the presidential election in May 2024. Compared with the local government elections held in March this year, the figure is almost three times as high.

Stefanía Óskarsdóttir, a professor at the University of Iceland and a specialist in Icelandic politics, points to five possible explanations for the strong early turnout.

First, she highlights the timing of the vote. Late summer is a period when people are still travelling and may not be in Iceland or at their registered polling station on election day. That may lead unusually large numbers of voters to cast their ballots early.

She also says the high turnout likely reflects the importance of the issue, with voters viewing the referendum as a significant question being put to the public.

Another factor is that the referendum offers simple choices, unlike the 2012 referendum on proposals from Iceland’s Constitutional Council. Voters in that referendum had to answer six questions and familiarise themselves with the council’s proposals. Turnout was unusually low, with only 48% of eligible voters going to the polls.

Stefanía also says the impact of a strong campaign should not be underestimated. The campaign has included advertising, a series of meetings and telephone canvassing, while both sides have urged people to vote.

Finally, she points to the narrow margin in opinion polls. Close polling can encourage voters to make their contribution, she says. If polls showed clear support for either side, people might be more likely to conclude that their absence would make little difference to the result.