Defence Forces study warns Russia will remain threat to Finland

Russia will remain a threat to Finland in the future, according to a study by the Finnish Defence Forces Research Institute reported by Yle. The study, titled Finland’s operating environment 2040, says changes in Finland’s security environment are expected to continue.

It says that Finns’ ability to survive and adapt to change provides a strong foundation for dealing with future challenges. Finland’s NATO membership also strengthens its ability to influence its future and build security with allies and partners.

The war in Ukraine, Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO memberships, and Russia’s aggressive foreign policy have fundamentally changed the strategic environment of Finland and Northern Europe, the study says. Similar global changes can be expected to continue.

Russia is expected to remain a threat

The study says Finland’s NATO membership was a strategic defeat for Russia, which is therefore strengthening its military forces near the Finnish border.

In the worst-case scenario, Russia’s military threat could lead to an attack aimed at seizing territory. Russia could also seek to isolate Finland from other NATO countries in order to create a buffer zone for itself.

Russia intensified its hybrid operation along Finland’s border in November 2023. On November 25, about 50 asylum seekers arrived in Raja-Jooseppi.

The study says Russia’s hostility will continue in the form of hybrid influence. Russia will need to develop new methods of influence and may use increasingly bold measures. It is also expected to seek to influence Finns through information operations.

Five factors shaping Finland’s future

The study identifies five key factors that will shape Finland’s future.

First, great-power rivalry is expected to affect Finland. The United States’ commitment to Europe, China’s role in Europe, Russia’s great-power ambitions and competition in the Arctic region will all have an impact.

The study describes a situation in which great powers increasingly challenge the rules-based international order, either acting against it or interpreting its rules according to their own interests. Russia wants to be seen as a great power and does not want to commit itself to international agreements and norms. It may also seek to expand its sphere of influence in Northern Europe.

Second, partnerships and alliances will be vital to Finland. It would be difficult for Finland to manage alone in an unstable global situation next to an aggressive neighbour. The country needs capable and willing partners, as well as both bilateral and multinational defence cooperation.

However, the study warns that the interests of NATO countries may not always serve Finland. Russia’s actions could also weaken partners’ commitment if they fear negative consequences.

Third, Finland must develop its military capabilities and anticipate future developments. The study highlights technologies enabling long-range warfare, which could be used to launch a surprise attack that would be difficult to repel.

Nuclear weapons are expected to remain a guarantee of security for many countries, meaning nuclear armament is not coming to an end. As the United States focuses more attention on the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, pressure to alter the deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe is also expected to increase.

Fourth, responsibility for Finland’s defence must be shared across all levels of society. Defence will continue to rely on conscription, making it important to maintain strong will to defend the country and a functioning conscription system.

A declining number of young people will affect Finland’s ability to generate sufficient wartime forces. Researchers also warn that people’s resilience in crises will be tested in the future. Trust in society’s institutions and in fellow citizens will be crucial.