Cancelled Greenland mission could strengthen Trump’s pressure on Denmark

A cancelled Danish Navy mission to Greenland could undermine Denmark’s claims that it is investing in the capacity to protect and monitor the Arctic, according to DR. The setback could also weaken European support for Denmark and give US President Donald Trump a concrete example to use in his pressure over Greenland, an expert says.

Trump has repeatedly said that the United States, and the world more broadly, needs the US to take control of Greenland. He has argued that Denmark cannot secure the island, whose surrounding waters he says are full of Russian and Chinese activity.

Denmark has sought to calm concerns by highlighting major investments in new equipment to protect and monitor the Arctic, including ships, aircraft, drones and satellite surveillance.

But repeated reports of critical conditions on the Danish Navy’s ships tasked with defending Greenland and enforcing the kingdom’s sovereignty undermine that message, said Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen, a lecturer at the Defence College.

The latest case involved the cancellation of a Greenland mission because there was not enough crew to sail the inspection vessel Hvidbjørnen. According to information obtained by DR News, the Danish Navy subsequently removed two of the six crew teams assigned to its Arctic inspection vessels from the duty roster until the vacant positions could be filled.

“It may be perceived that Denmark talks a lot but delivers very little when it comes to carrying things out,” Rahbek-Clemmensen said.

“That is something Donald Trump has also said before: that Denmark talks a lot about its investments, but perhaps there is not much substance behind them.”

He said Trump could use the cancelled mission as a specific example of Denmark’s alleged inability to defend Greenland.

Turning an oil tanker

Rahbek-Clemmensen said it could take a long time for the Danish Navy to reach the staffing levels needed to fill all crew teams without compromising its duties.

Training personnel takes time, he said, and the current situation is the result of a backlog that has built up over many years.

For almost a decade, a shortage of soldiers has particularly affected the Navy’s Arctic vessels. The problem has grown as the remaining personnel have had to work harder to fill the gaps.

That has led more soldiers to leave the unit. The worn-out ships and the working conditions they have created have further intensified the problem.

“A military organisation is a bit like an oil tanker, and it takes a long time to change the ship’s direction. That is why cases involving problems with military capabilities in the Arctic keep emerging,” Rahbek-Clemmensen said.

DR reported in the spring that almost one in four positions aboard the Arctic inspection vessels was vacant. An internal survey also showed that staff shortages were causing increased workloads, stress and exhaustion, affecting the soldiers’ mental health.

Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl, a military analyst at the University of Southern Denmark and a retired naval commander, said the cancelled mission could also be used by Trump.

He said the staffing shortage could have long-term consequences if it is not addressed.

“Something has to be done if we are not to lose the capacity to operate in the Arctic. It will become a problem if too many experienced personnel leave,” Buhl said.

“The Arctic vessels are heavily dependent on experienced crews who can sail in those waters. That is not something you can produce overnight.”

Expert does not believe crisis is over

Rahbek-Clemmensen is concerned that Denmark could lose credibility among important European allies during the wider Greenland crisis.

He does not believe the crisis is over, even though the situation is relatively calm at present compared with the beginning of the year, when tensions were at their highest.

At that time, Denmark sent additional blood supplies and explosives to Greenland so that runways could be destroyed in the event of a possible US attack.

Representatives from Denmark, the United States and Greenland are currently negotiating an agreement on future cooperation that all three parties can accept.

Trump, however, continues to raise the issue of Greenland. In August, he challenged radio host Steve Gruber to bet that the United States would have “operational control” of Greenland before Trump leaves the White House in 2029.