EU’s leading powers stand on feet of clay

In a contributed article published by Morgunblaðið, Baldur Guðlaugsson argues that Iceland’s interests would not necessarily be better served inside the European Union, whose leading powers are facing economic difficulties and growing political uncertainty.

Following the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU, France and Germany have become the union’s undisputed leading states and exert the greatest influence over its policies and activities, Guðlaugsson writes.

Economic growth in France is little or nonexistent, the government deficit is substantial and pressure on public spending is greater than ever. In Germany, growth is slowing alongside declining productivity, a worsening competitive position and insufficient innovation. Political stability has also weakened significantly in both countries, while uncertainty continues to grow.

According to the latest opinion polls, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD, is now the country’s largest political party, with about 28 per cent support. Other parties have so far rejected cooperation with the AfD at national level, although it remains uncertain how long that will be possible.

Many AfD leaders are considered sympathetic to Russia. The party wants to end financial and military assistance to Ukraine, improve relations with Russia and oppose closer military cooperation within the EU. It also wants to reconsider Germany’s participation in NATO’s military cooperation, abolish the euro and return to national European currencies.

In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, or National Rally, is the country’s largest party according to opinion polls, with about 35 per cent support. Presidential elections will be held next year, and Le Pen is considered to have a genuine chance of becoming the country’s next president.

National Rally wants to strengthen France’s independent defence capabilities and reduce defence cooperation within Europe and military cooperation within NATO. There are also considered to be prospects that a France led by Le Pen would use its veto against sanctions on Russia and reduce support for Ukraine.

Guðlaugsson writes that seeking shelter in exposed conditions has never been considered desirable. In his view, that is what Iceland would be doing if it concluded that its interests were best served inside the EU given the current circumstances in the union’s leading countries.

He argues that statements by EU membership supporters can sometimes make it seem as though Iceland must choose not only between being inside or outside the EU, but also between being inside or outside Europe. He says that nothing could be further from the truth.

Iceland already participates fully in various forms of cooperation among European countries, both with EU states through the European Economic Area Agreement and other international agreements, and with other European countries through a range of agreements.

Because Iceland is outside the EU, Guðlaugsson writes, the country also has broad scope and independence to seek agreements and cooperation with countries outside the union, both within and beyond Europe.

Iceland is a North Atlantic state, giving it a particular position economically, politically and militarily. The United States is Iceland’s largest trading partner and has also undertaken the country’s defence. Iceland is increasingly aligned with other non-EU North Atlantic states, including Canada, the United Kingdom and Norway.