Only a miracle appears able to save Kristersson

The Tidö parties show no sign of recovering in the polls, leaving Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson facing a deeply difficult position less than four weeks before the 2026 election, according to an analysis by SVT political commentator Mats Knutson.

SVT/Verian’s August voter survey offers no indication that the governing parties are narrowing the lead held by the red-green opposition. Instead, the gap appears to have widened slightly over the summer, although the change is within the margin of error.

The opposition now leads by 10 percentage points. Conservative strategists who had hoped to see that gap shrink before the final stage of the campaign are likely to be disappointed, Knutson writes.

Liberals remain in deep trouble

The Liberal Party continues to show no sign of recovering. At these polling levels, it is also likely to struggle to attract tactical votes from supporters of other parties.

The Centre Party has received little attention during the election campaign but records a significant increase in the survey. One possible explanation, according to Knutson, is that broadly liberal voters who oppose the influence of the Sweden Democrats in the Tidö government are turning to the Centre Party.

The Social Democrats’ weak trend is continuing, but the red-green parties still hold a 10-point lead. No government has previously managed to close such a gap this close to election day, Knutson writes.

He concludes that only a miracle now appears capable of saving Kristersson and the Tidö parties.

SVT identifies the article as an analysis and says its conclusions are the journalist’s own.