Swedish election campaign enters full swing as candidates hit trail

Sweden’s two prime ministerial candidates began their election tours on Monday, marking the official start of the 2026 campaign, according to SVT political commentator Mats Knutson. With 41 days remaining until election day on September 13, the governing Tidö parties may already be facing an uphill battle unless they can achieve a historic recovery in the polls.

The parties supporting the government have been trailing the opposition by a wide margin. The Statistics Sweden party preference survey in May put the gap between the blocs at 12 percentage points. Other polling organisations have since shown a smaller difference, but the opposition still holds a substantial lead.

That leaves the two prime ministerial candidates with very different starting points. Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson urgently needs a “game changer”, such as an event or announcement that could quickly shift public opinion in his favour. Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson, by contrast, will be seeking to maintain the opposition’s advantage without taking unnecessary risks.

The Social Democrats are again expected to centre their campaign on Andersson. She is the party leader voters trust most, and the party hopes to benefit from that on September 13. Andersson is likely to repeat her message that she wants to become “the prime minister of all Sweden”.

She is less likely to discuss potential coalition partners such as the Left Party and the Green Party, SVT’s Knutson writes. Such a discussion could alienate centrist swing voters who may prove decisive in the election.

Kristersson is under heavy pressure. The Moderates are performing clearly worse in opinion polls than the Sweden Democrats, and a loss of government power for the Tidö parties could also bring an end to Kristersson’s leadership of the Moderates.

The Tidö parties had hoped that extensive budget measures would help them regain lost support. So far, they do not appear to have produced that result. Recent reports of stronger economic growth could nevertheless improve voters’ mood before the final phase of the campaign.

The government parties are placing their hopes in undecided voters, who may account for as much as 15 to 20 per cent of the electorate, according to opinion surveys conducted in early summer. Alongside promises of a stronger economy, they are expected to attack Andersson’s proposed governing alternative and warn against a less strict criminal justice and migration policy.

The Social Democrats, in turn, are expected to accuse the government of pursuing misguided economic policies during its term in office, including tax cuts for wealthy people rather than broader measures aimed at ordinary households.

SVT describes the article as an analysis. Its conclusions are those of the journalist and do not represent the interests of a political party, company or interest organisation.