Russian shadow fleet oil spill could reach Sweden in nine days

Russian shadow fleet vessels transport tens of thousands of tons of oil daily past Sweden, and a spill could reach the country’s coast within nine days, according to a new model by German researchers commissioned by Swedish broadcaster SVT.

Daniel Stenling of the Swedish Coast Guard called the scenario a “nightmare.” The shadow fleet operates with hidden ownership, unclear insurance, and often false or ambiguous flags, passing near Sweden’s coast every day.

SVT’s investigation identified around 500 vessels in the Russian shadow fleet that have transported oil through the Baltic Sea since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Stenling noted increased risks due to poor seaworthiness, falsely flagged ships lacking certificates, and inadequate insurance.

A suspected spill linked to the shadow fleet was detected in April, with a multi-kilometer oil slick east of Gotland. The sanctioned tanker Flora 1 was detained near Ystad, but evidence was insufficient to confirm its responsibility.

“These are vessels that are uninsured, poorly maintained, or lack properly trained crews. That makes them unseaworthy—and that’s a safety issue,” said Ewa Skoog Haslum, operations chief of the Swedish Armed Forces.

The Baltic Sea’s slow water exchange makes it highly vulnerable to pollution. In 2023, the grounding of the passenger ship Marco Polo off Blekinge leaked at least 55 tons of oil, damaging coastal ecosystems. A shadow fleet tanker typically carries around 100,000 tons—over 1,000 times the Marco Polo spill.

German research institute Hereon simulated a 100,000-ton oil spill along a shipping route off Skåne for SVT. The illustrative scenario, influenced by weather and currents, showed oil reaching much of Skåne’s south coast within nine days.

“A major spill from an oil tanker would be an absolute environmental disaster for Sweden. It’s a nightmare scenario,” Stenling said.