Russia may target Danish ports and bridges in new war, Nordic intelligence warns

Danish bridges and ports, including the Great Belt and Little Belt crossings, could become targets in a potential new war with Russia, according to senior Nordic intelligence chiefs and top military officers.

In the event of conflict in the Baltic Sea region, Denmark may be drawn in quickly, with initial strikes expected near its borders, sources told Danish broadcaster DR in extensive background interviews conducted over 18 months for the documentary Krigsplan Europa.

The sources, who include high-ranking officers in Denmark’s defence and NATO, do not know whether Russia’s ongoing military buildup will lead to new attacks in Europe beyond Ukraine. But if war breaks out, they identify the Baltic Sea region as the most likely first flashpoint.

“Russia does not wage defensive war. They wage offensive war. And the Russians will be the ones to attack, so the war does not unfold behind their own border on Russian soil,” one Nordic intelligence chief said.

While a direct ground invasion of Denmark is not expected, missiles or drones could strike critical infrastructure such as the Øresund, Great Belt, and Little Belt bridges, the sources said. A senior Danish defence officer called air threats—primarily missiles—the most significant danger to Denmark.

DR’s investigation, which included access to NATO documents on potential war scenarios, participation in major exercises in Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, and reviews of threat assessments from seven regional intelligence services, also used satellite imagery to document Russian military buildup near Nordic and Baltic borders.

The research shows NATO’s European members are preparing for multiple scenarios in a potential future war with Russia—not because conflict is certain, but because it cannot be ruled out. Russia, according to the sources, has various military plans ready for activation.

Of particular concern is a regional conflict beginning with a Russian attack from Belarus into the Suwałki Gap, a narrow strip of land between Lithuania and Poland considered one of NATO’s most vulnerable points. Capturing this area could cut the Baltic states off from the rest of NATO while linking Russia to its Kaliningrad exclave.

“Then it will depend on Europe whether to try to retake the Baltic states,” the Nordic intelligence chief said.

In such a scenario, NATO expects Russia to combine rapid airborne operations with heavy ground forces and extensive airstrikes. The terrain in Estonia, Latvia, and parts of Lithuania—marked by lakes, rivers, marshes, and dense forests—would complicate Russian advances except along main roads, the sources said.

Danish Major General Brian Nissen, who would command up to 150,000 NATO troops defending the Baltics and parts of Poland on the front line, said controlling infrastructure would be critical.

“Even if the fighting itself may not take place on the roads, much of the battle will revolve around gaining control of infrastructure to move logistics forward and sustain operations,” Nissen said.

“The best contribution I can make to de-escalate the situation now is to show the Russians that the cost-benefit ratio of launching a conventional war in Europe is not worth the effort,” he added.