Swedish military chief warns Russia may test Nato sooner than expected

Sweden’s supreme military commander has told public broadcaster SVT that Russia could challenge Nato’s resolve in the Baltic Sea region earlier than previously assessed, citing an increasingly volatile security situation.

Speaking to SVT, Supreme Commander Michael Claesson said Moscow may seek to exploit perceived vulnerabilities in the alliance before Western military reinforcements are fully in place. “They know the entire Western world is rearming. So why would they wait?” he stated.

Several Nato member intelligence services have previously warned that Russia could pose a direct threat to the alliance within one to five years. Claesson suggested a test of Nato cohesion could come even sooner, potentially targeting “an island in the Baltic Sea region” to gauge whether the alliance would unite in defence—and where divisions might emerge.

“Russia knows it cannot defeat Nato militarily, so it must attack the alliance’s unity and exploit any weaknesses,” he explained. When asked about timing, Claesson replied: “Now. They see the West rearming and may act before defences are fully strengthened.”

The warning follows heightened activity by Russia’s so-called shadow fleet—vessels used to evade sanctions—now operating in greater numbers in the Baltic Sea with increased security escorts. Claesson described this as a “clear escalation risk,” noting tighter protections around these ships could lead to confrontations.

To deter aggression, he stressed that Sweden and neighbouring countries must maintain high readiness, expand military exercises, and demonstrate long-term resilience. “It’s dangerous, of course,” he acknowledged. “But it sends a signal that we must stay alert—building our war-fighting capacity and sustaining preparedness over time.”

The security situation in the Baltic Sea has deteriorated compared to previous years, Claesson confirmed, attributing the shift to Russia’s expanded naval presence and provocative manoeuvres.