Iceland herring fishing season could boost economic growth forecasts by Landsbanki

The recent herring fishing season could significantly boost Iceland’s economic growth by 0.5 to 1 percent next year, according to a forecast by Landsbanki’s analysis department. This comes following a herring shortage this year, with uncertainty surrounding the availability of herring in January. If herring is found, economic growth may rise from an anticipated 2.3% to a range of 2.8% to 3.3%.

Landsbanki’s economist, Hjalti Óskarsson, stated that a successful herring season could lead to increased GDP growth projections. Historically, complete herring shortages have occurred only three times since 1962, with the most recent shortage happening this year, along with those in 2019 and 2020. The Icelandic Marine Research Institute recently assessed the herring stock at approximately 307,000 tons, which is deemed insufficient for fishing.

Óskarsson noted that even if herring remains elusive, its impact on the economy might not be as pronounced as in previous years. Iceland’s export products have diversified, focusing more on aluminum and tourism in recent times. Expectations are that other sectors, such as technology and aquaculture, will witness the most significant growth in the coming years.

Over the last decade, the herring catch has primarily occurred in the first three months of the year, during which the fish are rich in roe, the most valuable part. An increasing trend in the use of roe points to growing demand in markets and improved processing techniques.