Poll shows closest competition between Iceland’s Independence Party and Center Party

A recent Gallup poll reveals a nearly indistinguishable difference in support for Iceland’s Independence Party (Sjálfstæðisflokkur) and the Center Party (Miðflokkur). About 25% of respondents support the current government, while the Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylking) retains the largest backing at 26%.

The Independence Party has seen a significant drop in support, currently at 17%, while the Center Party has gained ground at 16%, reflecting a dramatic increase from its voting results in the 2021 elections. The People’s Party (Flokkur fólksins) is losing support, and the Socialist Party is projected to capture three parliamentary seats.

In this latest poll, the Independence Party is expected to secure 11 seats in parliament, while the Center Party is anticipated to secure 10. The Social Democratic Alliance remains the largest party in the Alþingi (Iceland’s parliament) with 20 seats. The survey indicates that Viðreisn (Reform Party) would receive 6 seats, the Pirates (Píratar) 5 seats, the People’s Party 4, and the Socialists are projected to get 3 seats. Notably, the Left-Green Movement (Vinstri græn) is not poised to gain any seats.

Approximately 5,000 Icelanders participated in the poll conducted between August 1 and August 29, 2024. The findings exhibit minimal variance when compared to the last polls conducted in July, highlighting stable yet competitive political dynamics in the country.