Swedish prison expansion could cost up to 85 billion kronor yearly

Sweden may need 45,000 prison and remand places by 2045, at an annual cost of up to 85 billion kronor, according to a new forecast from the Swedish Prison and Probation Service reported by SVT.

The service currently has 13,000 places and plans to expand capacity to 20,000 by 2035. Its director-general, Rikard Jermsten, said the longer-term expansion could require the equivalent of five Kumla prisons each year. He has been summoned to appear before parliament’s justice committee.

The projected need is 11,000 places higher than in the service’s forecast this spring. The increase follows parliament’s approval this summer of the final part of a criminal justice reform, including changes whose start dates have not yet been set.

If the expansion is required, the service’s costs could rise from 24 billion kronor in 2026 to between 80 billion and 85 billion kronor a year by 2045. “We are now heading towards a serious situation,” justice committee chair Teresa Carvalho told news agency TT.

Several criminologists have criticised the prospect of such a large increase in the prison population. Felipe Estrada, a professor of criminology at Stockholm University, said he feared rehabilitation work would be sidelined and questioned whether the policy would reduce crime.

The forecast has also been challenged by opposition lawmaker Fredrik Kärrholm, who argues it does not account for how longer prison sentences could prevent repeat offenders from committing new crimes and reduce the number entering the system.

Jermsten said forecasting was difficult when reforms were being adopted quickly. The service would make the best estimates it could and revise them based on actual outcomes, he said.

Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer said the report would inform future work. He said the Moderates were pushing to abolish sentence discounts for multiple offences by 2029 while maintaining security and rehabilitation efforts in prisons, and that further expansion and other measures would be needed.

Parliament has also approved removing some grounds for sentence reductions, having courts more often impose sentences towards the upper end of the penalty range, and changing release after two-thirds of a sentence to release after three-quarters, including for sentences shorter than six years. The changes do not yet have implementation dates.