An early election could be a nightmare for Sweden’s Social Democrats

Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson would struggle to face voters after failing to form a government, SVT political commentator Elisabeth Marmorstein writes in an analysis. The Centre Party and the Left Party are counting on the Social Democrats to stick to their positions on whether the Left Party should enter the government.

Talks between party leaders and a Centre Party seminar are unlikely to break the deadlock over which parties should govern, Marmorstein writes. Both the Centre Party and the Left Party expect several parliamentary votes on the prime minister to be needed before the process moves forward. Each vote would bring the threat of an early election closer.

Although an early election would carry risks for the Left Party, the Centre Party and the Liberals, the Social Democrats have the most to lose, according to the analysis. Andersson could become the only Social Democratic leader to fail to form a government after winning an election. The party has already recorded its worst election result since workers gained the right to vote, but its members are likely to accept that if she manages to form a government.

After a failed attempt, the Social Democrats would find it difficult to campaign on a promise of strong leadership, Marmorstein writes. The party also could not rely on highlighting the prospect of 12 Sweden Democrat ministers, she says, as the Moderates have regained the lead on the right.

A further risk for the Social Democrats is that turnout could be lower in an early election, which would work against the party. The red-green parties could therefore lose the chance to govern before taking office. If that happened, Marmorstein writes, Andersson would be unlikely to remain party leader for long.

The Left Party has calculated that the Social Democrats may ultimately accept Left Party ministers if faced with the prospect of an early election. But that may not resolve the deadlock if Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist maintains her opposition to the Left Party joining the government and prefers an early election instead.

Survey of red-green voters

An SVT survey found that 83% of red-green voters would prefer a government in which the Social Democrats, Green Party, Centre Party and Left Party all received ministerial posts, while 8% would prefer an early election and 9% were unsure. Asked about a Social Democrat and Green Party government without ministers from the Centre Party or Left Party, 66% preferred that option, 16% chose an early election and 17% were unsure.

Asked how likely they thought it was that the four red-green parties would agree to form a government, 14% said very likely and 56% fairly likely. Twenty-two per cent said fairly unlikely, 3% very unlikely and 5% were unsure.

On how the parties had handled government formation, 49% gave a positive assessment of the Green Party, 30% of the Social Democrats, 21% of the Left Party and 19% of the Centre Party. Asked which party bore the greatest responsibility for the difficulties, 41% named the Centre Party, 39% the Left Party, 12% the Social Democrats and 1% the Green Party.

The survey was conducted by Indikator Opinion for SVT News from October 2 to 7, 2026, and included 1,624 red-green voters.