Finland must prepare for four possible futures for Russia

Finnish ministries have outlined four possible futures for Russia in 2045 and say Finland must be ready to adapt to any of them, Yle reports.

The defence, interior and foreign ministries developed the scenarios through a joint expert project called Russia’s Futures. Project coordinator Terhi Ylitalo, a ministerial adviser, said Russia’s development is shaped by several factors at once. Preparedness should therefore be based on considering different scenarios, rather than on a single assumption about the country’s direction, she said in a statement.

The authorities have also drawn up a list of measures considered important for improving Finland’s ability to anticipate how developments in Russia could affect the country.

Renewing Russia: A pragmatic regional power seeking influence through a mix of competition, cooperation and incentives.

Declining Russia: A weakening regional power that remains defiant but loses influence and becomes increasingly dependent on China.

Imperialist Russia: An authoritarian, expansionist regional great power that uses force and succeeds in achieving key foreign policy goals.

Chaotic Russia: A nuclear-armed state in deep internal crisis, with eroding capacity but a continued reliance on risky, violent and warlike policies.

The ministries said Russia’s war in Ukraine has significantly increased uncertainty in the operating environment. The project identified factors driving change and uncertainty, including the persistence of great-power thinking, the effects of climate change and the growing militarisation of security policy.