Expert warns overreaction to suspected break-ins could benefit Russia

An intelligence expert has urged caution over suspected break-ins at MPs’ homes, warning that an overreaction could play into Russia’s hands. Saana Nilsson, who previously worked for Finland’s Security and Intelligence Service, spoke to Yle about the cases.

Nilsson said the police should first establish what happened before anyone speculates about whether Russia was involved. Several MPs suspect that someone entered their homes without permission, and the cases were discussed at a parliamentary security meeting last week. Parliament made the suspicions public on Thursday.

Nilsson said Russia’s intelligence operations in Finland have been significantly constrained during the war in Ukraine, including by the expulsion of intelligence officers and the prolonged closure of the eastern border.

Without drawing conclusions about who was behind the suspected entries, Nilsson said their most likely aim would be to create a sense of insecurity and uncertainty. She said public reactions to Russia had shifted during the war, from what she saw as excessive trust before it began to, at times, very quick overreactions now.

Nilsson warned that people could themselves contribute to hybrid and information influence efforts by portraying Russia as an all-powerful actor.

Yle reports that fewer than 20 suspected entries have occurred over the past year. No signs of forced entry or theft have been reported, but MPs have noticed indications that someone may have been inside, such as an open door or lights left on. The cases are not linked by party affiliation or gender.

Police have begun a preliminary inquiry but have not opened a criminal investigation. The Security and Intelligence Service is aware of the cases but has not assessed their background. No information is currently available about a motive or who may be responsible.