Moderates gain as Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats lose ground in industrial towns

Voters in several traditional Swedish industrial towns shifted towards the Moderate Party in the 2026 parliamentary election, while support for the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats declined, according to an analysis by SVT. In Hagfors, Värmland, voter Christer West was among those who changed party.

“The Tidö government has done a great job,” West said.

Hagfors is a traditional industrial town where the iron and steel industry has shaped both the labour market and the community. The Social Democrats remain the largest party in the town, but their support has fallen.

West previously voted for the Social Democrats, then switched to the Sweden Democrats in the 2022 parliamentary election. This year, he gave his vote to the Liberals as a tactical vote because he wanted the Tidö government to remain in office for another four years.

“I think everyone has handled things well. Gunnar Strömmer is the best politician we have had for many years, but I also like the Liberal ministers,” he said.

Broader shift across central Sweden

In Hagfors, the Social Democrats lost 5.3 percentage points and the Sweden Democrats lost 1.6 points, while the Moderates gained 4.9 points.

SVT’s review of 15 selected traditional industrial municipalities in central Sweden found the same pattern in every municipality. The Social Democrats have lost support since 2018. The Sweden Democrats gained ground until 2022 but are now declining, while the Moderates have increased their share in all three elections.

The municipalities have traditionally been Social Democratic strongholds and have long been dominated by a major employer in the mining, steel or engineering industries.

Across all 15 municipalities, the parties’ combined shares of the parliamentary vote were:

Moderates: 12.9 per cent in 2018, 13.7 per cent in 2022 and 16.5 per cent in 2026.

Sweden Democrats: 22.1 per cent in 2018, 28.1 per cent in 2022 and 24.9 per cent in 2026.

Social Democrats: 39.2 per cent in 2018, 37.0 per cent in 2022 and 33.2 per cent in 2026.

The comparison uses the final results from 2018 and 2022 and the preliminary result from 2026.