Column revisits Iceland’s disputed EU referendum promise

In a column published by mbl.is, Árni Helgason argues that claims of a broken promise over a referendum on European Union accession talks should be viewed in their political context.

Following the result of the referendum, some have said that the nation has finally settled an issue that had weighed on it like a nightmare for years. This argument is often linked to claims that promises were broken.

Those claims refer to statements made before the 2013 election that a referendum would be held on whether to continue EU accession negotiations. Helgason writes that, although it may be unusual to revisit promises made by other political parties 13 years ago, the history and context of the issue are also relevant.

The government at the time applied for EU membership in summer 2009. When the negotiations were halted in 2013, they were still at an early stage. The issue was not prominent in that year’s election campaign, and the debate focused mainly on what should happen to the accession process rather than on whether Iceland should join the EU.

After the election, the Independence Party and the Progressive Party formed a government and decided not to hold a referendum on continuing the negotiations. Helgason describes the decision as controversial but understandable, since neither party had EU membership in its platform.

The reasoning behind the decision, he writes, was that a government should not enter accession negotiations unless it intends to pursue membership, and certainly not if it is directly opposed to membership.

Some voters were likely dissatisfied, but they had several options, including leaving their party or voting for another party in the next election, held in 2016. If the issue had weighed heavily on the nation, Helgason argues, the decision might have cost the parties dearly.

That did not happen. The Independence Party received 29 per cent of the vote in 2016 and substantially increased its support. The Social Democratic Alliance, which had long advocated EU membership, suffered a heavy defeat and received just under 6 per cent. Viðreisn, which ran for the first time in that election, received 11 per cent.

Viðreisn subsequently formed a government with the Independence Party and Bright Future. If the alleged broken promise of a referendum had been such a major issue, Helgason writes, making the issue part of the agenda would presumably have been a condition for the coalition agreement. It was not included in the agreement.

That government lasted only about a year before collapsing. EU-related issues also received little attention in the 2017 and 2021 elections. It was not until this year that a referendum on the matter was announced.

Helgason concludes that the issue has been urgent for a very limited group, but not for the wider public.