SVT algorithm aims to predict election result within minutes

SVT says it will be able to predict Sweden’s 2026 parliamentary election result earlier than ever using an algorithm developed with researchers.

Polling stations close at 8pm on September 13, and it usually takes several hours before there is a clear picture of the outcome. The mathematical model is designed to produce a forecast after only a few per cent of the votes have been counted.

“We will hopefully be able to say how this election will end faster than ever before,” election reporter Fouad Youcefi told SVT.

The forecast combines how each district voted in previous elections, the types of voters living there and how electoral trends are developing in similar districts during this election.

As results come in, the model assesses the direction of those trends and combines all the variables to estimate the final result.

“You can trust the forecast. It is not the final result, but when 650 of the 6,500 districts have reported, our forecast is less than 0.1 percentage points off,” Youcefi said.