Liberal rise narrows gap ahead of Sweden’s 2026 election

An upward trend for the Liberals and declining support for the Social Democrats are narrowing the gap between Sweden’s political blocs, according to an analysis by SVT’s domestic political commentator Mats Knutson. If the trend continues, the 2026 election could be close.

The trend appears in several opinion polls and is also reflected in the latest SVT/Verian voter survey, although the changes are less pronounced than in a poll by Novus.

The difference may be explained by Verian’s longer survey period, which spans more than two weeks and smooths out changes. Verian’s fieldwork starts earlier and ends later than Novus’s. However, both surveys show a similar overall trend.

Liberals gain momentum

The Liberals’ support increased during the survey period. In the second week, the party approached the four per cent threshold for representation in parliament. It also passed the 3.5 per cent level for support votes discussed by Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson. Across the full survey period, however, the Liberals recorded 3.0 per cent.

Verian’s survey shows that the Liberals’ upward trend strengthened during the second week. Their vulnerable position has received significant media attention, particularly after Åkesson’s comments about support votes the previous Saturday. Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson has repeatedly highlighted the party’s key role in maintaining the Tidö coalition government. That debate may have benefited the Liberals, Knutson writes.

Social Democrats face decline

The Social Democrats have higher support in Verian’s survey than in Novus’s poll, but their downward trend also became stronger during the second week. If the figures hold, the party risks performing worse than in 2018, when it received 28.3 per cent, its worst election result since universal suffrage was introduced.

The decline may be linked to uncertainty surrounding a potential red-green government, disagreements between the Centre Party and the Left Party, and unclear positions from the Social Democrats on several election issues.

SVT/Verian’s survey indicates that the Liberals are gaining voters from the Moderate Party, the Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats. The Social Democrats are also losing voters to the Left Party, which may benefit from the Social Democrats’ shift to the right to attract centrist voters. The Left Party’s support increased during the second week, while the Centre Party also performed strongly.

The Moderate Party recorded a weak result but recovered during the second week. The gap between the blocs also narrowed during the survey period, reaching about six percentage points in the second week.

About one million voters remain undecided. If the current trend continues, the election could therefore be close.