Government would fall if election were held now

The Icelandic government would fall if an election were held now, according to a Gallup poll reported by mbl.is. The Social Democratic Alliance has gained 1.7 percentage points, while the Reform Party has lost the same share of support.

The two main parties on opposing sides of the European Union issue have followed different paths in the latest Gallup national poll. Reform has lost almost two percentage points since the previous month, while the Social Democratic Alliance has gained a corresponding amount.

The poll offers little indication of the impact of the result over the weekend, as it was conducted from 4 August until the end of the month.

The Social Democratic Alliance remains Iceland’s largest political party, with almost 30 per cent support. Reform now has 9.7 per cent, its lowest level of support in two years.

The Independence Party and the Centre Party, the two main parties that campaigned for a no outcome, have each gained about one percentage point. The Independence Party has 27 per cent support and is the second-largest party, while the Centre Party is third with almost 16 per cent.

The Progressive Party has slipped slightly to 5.5 per cent. The People’s Party has 4.8 per cent, the Left-Green Movement 3.6 per cent and the Socialists 2.4 per cent.

The Left-Green Movement and the Socialists would not win seats in parliament, while it is uncertain whether the People’s Party would retain a seat.

Support for the government stands at 50 per cent, down from 69 per cent at the beginning of the current parliamentary term. The Social Democratic Alliance and Reform would win a combined 29 seats, while the minimum required for a parliamentary majority is 32. The People’s Party would likely leave parliament.