Varsinais-Suomi gains seat as Häme loses one

Varsinais-Suomi will gain one parliamentary seat in next spring’s elections, while the Häme electoral district will lose one, Yle reports. Varsinais-Suomi will elect 18 MPs and Häme 13.

The change is based on population trends. The number of Finnish citizens is increasing in Varsinais-Suomi but declining in Häme.

The allocation of seats will be formally confirmed based on the number of Finnish citizens on the last day of October. However, the population trends would have to change sharply and quickly for the seat numbers to remain unchanged.

Varsinais-Suomi’s population growth, driven by Turku, would have to turn into a decline, while the number of Finnish citizens in Häme would have to begin rising rapidly, said Rasmus Aro, a senior consultant at research company MDI.

“In Varsinais-Suomi, the difference is several thousand people, so such a change is unlikely in the coming months,” Aro said.

Christian Democrats face concern

The number of MPs will remain unchanged in the other electoral districts, Aro said, adding that he was “very confident” in this assessment. He based it on monthly population data from this year and last year.

The loss of a seat in Häme could particularly concern the Christian Democrats. Päivi Räsänen, the party’s long-serving MP, was the last candidate elected from Häme in the previous parliamentary elections.

“When an electoral district loses a seat, attention turns to which party held the last seat. People then start calculating who is most likely to lose out,” said Jenni Karimäki, a university researcher at the University of Eastern Finland.

A smaller number of seats also raises the so-called effective electoral threshold. Candidates need a larger share of all votes in the district to be elected.

Extra seat could benefit SDP

In Varsinais-Suomi, candidates will have an easier path because there will be one additional seat. The last candidate to miss out in the previous elections was from the Social Democratic Party, making the extra seat potentially beneficial to the SDP.

“Current opinion polls are already predicting a significantly better result for the SDP than in the previous parliamentary elections. In that sense, the party’s situation looks even better,” Karimäki said.

The changes in Varsinais-Suomi and Häme are unlikely to have much effect on the parties’ nationwide campaigns. However, campaigning in Häme could become somewhat more intense, and parties may scrutinise their candidate lists more closely than usual.

“Especially parties that calculate that the loss of one seat could weaken their position may invest slightly more in campaigning,” Karimäki said.

Further changes expected

Southern electoral districts also grew in the previous parliamentary elections, when Helsinki, Uusimaa and Pirkanmaa gained seats while Southeast Finland and Lapland lost them.

According to Aro, Helsinki and Uusimaa appear likely to gain seats again during the next parliamentary term, at the expense of Southeast Finland and Satakunta. Satakunta could then become an electoral district with only seven MPs.

“Small electoral districts are a challenge for the Finnish electoral system, particularly in ensuring that the views of all regions are taken into account and that the whole of Finland remains represented in decision-making,” Karimäki said.

As the effective electoral threshold continues to rise, smaller parties face even weaker prospects in small electoral districts.

In June, the government proposed a legal change that would allow the number of electoral districts to be reduced from its current level. Opposition parties the SDP and the Centre Party did not support the draft proposal.