Referendum result could have gone either way, analyst says

The result of Iceland’s referendum could have gone either way, international political scientist Vilborg Ása Guðjónsdóttir told mbl.is.

She said the outcome was not necessarily surprising, although the margin appeared narrower during election night and the early hours that followed. In the end, she said, the result was broadly in line with the latest opinion polls.

“I thought 52 to 48 was quite likely, so it was always going to be a matter of a few percentage points,” Guðjónsdóttir said.

Other issues will now take priority

Guðjónsdóttir said the immediate focus would shift to other matters. Iceland will not enter membership negotiations with the European Union, while the government has a large package of legislation planned for parliament.

However, she said European and international affairs would still need to remain on the agenda.

Vote largely followed party lines

She said the result showed that voters outside the capital had leaned strongly towards no. Although there are differing views on European affairs within the political parties, she said the vote had largely followed party lines.

Opposition parties are stronger outside the capital than the governing parties, she said, which helped produce the no vote there.

There had also been discussion about younger voters leaning towards no. Guðjónsdóttir said she questioned whether decisions were being made on the right grounds when much of the campaign aimed at young people took place on TikTok.

“Personally, I do not think TikTok is the best platform for gathering information,” she said.

Government weakened but not at risk of falling

Guðjónsdóttir said the result had weakened the government to some extent because it was clearly not the outcome it wanted.

However, she said there was no indication that the government would fall. The governing parties and their leaders remained united, and she saw no reason to expect the coalition to fail to complete its term.