Iceland’s EU referendum remains too close to call

The result of Iceland’s referendum on European Union membership remains too close to call, mbl.is reports, with the first figures showing 51.2 per cent voting yes and 48.8 per cent voting no.

International political scientist Vilborg Ása Guðjónsdóttir said the result was exactly as close as predicted and broadly in line with Gallup’s penultimate poll. That poll put the yes side at 51.5 per cent and the no side at 48.5 per cent among those who had decided how to vote, although the difference was not statistically significant.

The figures were similarly divided before votes from the Southwest electoral district were released, and those results narrowed the lead for the yes side. Vilborg said there was almost no way to predict the final outcome, particularly because a record number of people voted outside polling stations and those ballots had yet to be counted.

“This is unbelievably close. We have just received figures from the capital area that were 9,900 against 9,900, and that is absolutely unbelievable,” she said.

Vilborg said the result was consistent with expectations over the past three weeks, although the two most recent polls had suggested that support for no might be growing.

“As the figures stand now, this appears to be exactly as close as the earlier forecasts predicted,” she said.

The result may not be decided until the final figures are released on Monday morning. Vilborg urged people to continue following the count rather than assume that the yes side had secured victory.

She said the narrow result should not have negative consequences, arguing that the past few months had been healthy for democracy and Icelandic society. A referendum was a sound way for a democratic society to settle an issue, she said, regardless of whether the result was yes or no.

If the result is no, Iceland will not move towards membership negotiations with the European Union, Vilborg said. She added that revisiting the issue in the future could not be ruled out, depending on international developments, US foreign policy, European affairs and developments concerning Norway.