Estonian journalist changes prediction and now expects no vote to win

An Estonian journalist who travelled to Iceland to cover the vote has changed his prediction and now believes the no side will prevail, mbl.is reports.

Joakim Klementi, a correspondent for Estonia’s public broadcaster, said Iceland was exactly what Brussels needed. “I think Brussels really wants to bring a wealthy Nordic nation into the union. If Iceland decides to join the EU, it would be a victory for the union and proof that it can expand,” he told mbl.is.

Asked whether EU membership would also be a victory for Iceland, Klementi said it was difficult to say because he could see arguments on both sides. He highlighted Iceland’s high interest rates and said people had told him their housing loans were twice or three times as expensive as elsewhere in Europe.

Klementi, who normally lives in Brussels, said EU membership also had disadvantages. Agriculture, fisheries and EU legislation could be difficult, he said, adding that compromises were often complicated and that small countries such as Estonia did not always get their way.

Before arriving in Iceland, Klementi expected the yes side to win based on opinion polls. After speaking to people in the country, however, he said he now thought the result would be a no.

“There was more energy on the no side. Based on my limited view, they seemed more active, and I have heard people say they have more funding behind them,” he said.

Klementi added that even a narrow yes victory would not necessarily make Iceland’s path to EU membership easy. He said many people supported negotiations but were uncertain about the final outcome.

Carl-Vincent Reimers, a journalist for the Swedish magazine Smedjan, said the vote had attracted considerable attention in Sweden. Iceland was a Nordic country with close cultural and political ties to Sweden, and one of only two Nordic countries outside the EU, he said.

Unlike Klementi, Reimers did not feel able to predict the result. “I think this could really go either way. When you talk to people here in Reykjavík, you hear different things,” he told mbl.is.