Betting sites predict Iceland will reject renewed EU talks

Betting markets indicate that Icelanders are likely to reject reopening membership negotiations with the European Union, according to mbl.is.

“It is somewhat like an opinion poll. You never know what will happen, but betting sites appear to have very strong predictive value,” said Daði Laxdal Gautason, chief business development officer at EpicBet.

When the article was published, EpicBet offered odds of 3.10 for a yes vote and 1.45 for a no vote.

Debates shifted the odds

EpicBet has accepted bets on the outcome since the vote was announced, and Daði said the odds had changed considerably during that period.

“Yes was more likely at first. Then, after the local elections, no became more likely and people began to have greater confidence in it,” he said.

Opinion polls have suggested that the vote will be close and have more often predicted a yes victory. Despite this, the odds for no have remained lower.

“Recently, especially after the debates, opinion polls have been pointing to something like 50-50 and even leaning slightly towards no, and the odds have been collapsing for us,” Daði said.

Tens of millions wagered

Daði stressed that nothing was certain and that the vote could go either way. However, he said betting sites had proved to be a useful indicator over time.

“We have been somewhat ahead of the opinion polls. If I had to guess, I would follow the betting sites rather than anything else,” he said.

Bets can be placed until polling stations close at 10pm, according to Daði. He said people had wagered tens of millions of Icelandic krónur in total.

Other betting sites, including Coolbet and Polymarket, also offer odds on the vote. On the betting sites reviewed by the journalist, the odds were consistently lower for a rejection of renewed membership negotiations.