Author warns EU talks would overshadow Iceland’s priorities

If voters approve restarting negotiations on Iceland’s membership of the European Union in Saturday’s referendum, the process would dominate public affairs for years, according to an opinion article by Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson published by mbl.is. He argues that the process would involve major spending, consume time and place a heavy burden on the public administration, at the expense of economic affairs, healthcare, education and transport.

The EU issue would overshadow all other matters, Guðmundsson writes, while the debate that has continued throughout the summer would carry on.

He says this is what happened during the previous negotiations. At the time, he worked as a journalist for Morgunblaðið and mbl.is, and reports on the process were published daily. The public administration was largely occupied with related tasks, he writes, while other issues were delayed or not handled properly. He also links the infrastructure deficit often discussed today mainly to those years.

Guðmundsson says some issues were also neglected because the government at the time had declared that they could not be addressed without joining the EU.

Economic conditions would not improve

He cites foreign exchange controls as an example. The Social Democratic Alliance, which led the government at the time, had stated that the controls would not be removed unless Iceland joined the EU. As a result, little or nothing was done on the issue, he writes. The matter was later addressed by the government formed by the Independence Party and the Progressive Party.

Guðmundsson argues that Iceland is now in a similar position. The government, or at least the Reform Party, which is responsible for the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, has said that joining the EU is a prerequisite for reducing inflation and lowering interest rates, he writes. He calls that claim entirely wrong.

However, he argues that approving a renewed negotiation process would create a strong political incentive for the economic situation not to improve. If the economy improved, there would be less interest in formally joining the EU, making it more difficult to persuade voters to support membership.

He quotes Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, who said on the Chess After Dark podcast on August 27, 2024: “What repeatedly happens with the European Union is that when things are going badly, when inflation has set in and when interest rates are high, people start wanting to join the European Union.”

Contrary to the documents

Guðmundsson says the negotiation process would involve full alignment with the EU’s regulatory framework before an agreement was concluded. He says this is clear from EU documents and from documents concerning Iceland’s application, including the EU’s so-called negotiating framework, which sets out the mandate given to the EU by its member states.

That framework states: “Iceland’s correct implementation of the acquis and its enforcement, including its effective and efficient application by the relevant administrative and judicial bodies, will determine how quickly the negotiations progress.”

The explanatory memorandum accompanying Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir’s parliamentary resolution on the referendum also states that the negotiations concern alignment with the EU’s regulatory framework. “It is often pointed out that accession negotiations with the EU concern new member states adapting to the Union’s rules. This is correct, since Iceland would be joining a union of states with rules already in place,” the memorandum says.