Seismic activity intensifies on Reykjanes Peninsula with potential eruption at Svartsengi

Seismic activity has been intensifying on the Reykjanes Peninsula, particularly under the Svartsengi geothermal area. Experts believe that the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi is approaching the upper limits needed to trigger a new lava flow or volcanic eruption by the end of next week. According to a geophysicist, increased seismicity is typically a precursor to an impending eruption.

Currently, it is estimated that around 19 to 20 million cubic meters of magma has accumulated in the chamber, which is comparable to the volume present before the last eruption that commenced in late May. The situation is now nearing the upper thresholds of uncertainty set during the previous influx of magma, expected to peak around August 18.

When asked if the increase in magma accumulation could lead to a larger volcanic event, the expert acknowledged that while it is difficult to predict precise outcomes, the potential for a bigger eruption exists. Hazard assessments have remained unchanged for the past two weeks, but a review is scheduled for early next week.

Eruptions can occur at any time, and there was speculation that an eruption might take place over the recent holiday weekend, which did not happen. The timeline for the next eruption remains uncertain, with the possibility that it could occur within the next two weeks. The experts caution that if the geological system continues to evolve, it may extend beyond the established limits, making forecasting challenging.