Ólafur Ragnar warns EU vote could put Iceland on hold

Former Icelandic president Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson has warned that the government could face serious difficulties if voters give it a mandate in Saturday’s planned referendum to resume European Union accession talks, mbl.is reports.

He said the vote could trigger events beyond the Icelandic government’s control, while ministers would also have to meet expectations they had created about the consequences of continuing towards EU membership.

“I am seriously concerned, for their sake and the ministers’ sake, that if they were to get a yes in this referendum, that is when the situation would become difficult for them,” Ólafur Ragnar said in an interview with the programme Spursmál.

He said ministers would then have to deliver on “all the big promises” and meet the expectations of people who believe the accession process would lead, among other things, to lower interest rates and the adoption of the euro.

Asked whether he believed those expectations were based on tricks, he replied: “Yes, of course they are.”

Accession timetable described as unrealistic

Ólafur Ragnar also criticised the idea that accession talks could be completed quickly. Asked about Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir’s reference to a period of one and a half years, he said that was not realistic.

“Those are simply dreams. Perhaps they believe it themselves,” he said, pointing out that no new country had joined the European Union since 2013.

He said the same applied to adopting the euro. The European Commission could not decide when Iceland would introduce the currency, he said. Iceland would first have to meet certain economic conditions, which, in the former president’s view, the country was far from meeting.

“We might perhaps meet them in five or 10 years,” he said.

Iceland could be placed on hold

Ólafur Ragnar said a yes vote could affect Iceland’s international relations almost immediately. Other countries would see uncertainty over Iceland’s future status and, as a result, over the country’s authority to establish and develop its own trade agreements.

“If there is a yes in this referendum, Iceland will be placed on hold by every other country in the world,” he said.

He said countries that already had free trade agreements with Iceland would not want to develop them further while the accession process was under way. The same uncertainty could, in his view, make it harder for Icelandic companies to enter new markets outside the European Union.

He said this situation could last for years.

“So this will be one complete international holding pattern for Iceland for three years, four years, five years, six years.”