Finns Party closes in on National Coalition Party in Yle poll

The Finns Party has increased its support to 15.6 per cent in Yle’s latest voter support poll, narrowing the gap with the National Coalition Party to 1.4 percentage points. Political researchers told Yle that the contest between the parties for the same voters could intensify.

The Finns Party recorded the largest increase in the poll, while the biggest decline was seen among the opposition Left Alliance. The National Coalition Party lost 0.4 percentage points despite being caught up in the Garden Helsinki controversy.

Johanna Vuorelma, a political researcher at the University of Helsinki’s Centre for European Studies and an adjunct professor of political science at the University of Turku, said controversies seen over the summer may have benefited the Finns Party.

She said the party may have gained from presenting itself as a strict manager of public finances, including in its approach to STEA grants. The Garden Helsinki controversy also did not portray the party negatively in the same way as its coalition partner, the National Coalition Party.

A migration crisis in Ceuta, a Spanish territory, may also have benefited the Finns Party. After the crisis began, Interior Minister Mari Rantanen of the Finns Party publicly supported Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s proposal to remove Spain from the Schengen area.

“Rantanen stood out with her hard-line statements, and this is one of the themes that traditionally benefits the Finns Party. It is an important theme for the party’s supporters,” Vuorelma said.

Markku Jokisipilä, director of the Centre for Parliamentary Studies, said the Finns Party’s strategy for attracting support differs from that of other parties. Rather than trying to appeal to the largest possible mass of voters and reach undecided voters, the party focuses its message on its core themes.

“The Finns Party concentrates its message on its own core issues, knowing full well that this may not appeal to a majority of voters, but rather provoke rejection and aversion,” Jokisipilä said.

According to Jokisipilä, the party trusts that between 20 and 25 per cent of people in Finland consider voting for it possible. Its message is directed at this group, and the strategy appears to have worked, he said.

“Based on the events of the summer, one could conclude that the overall strategy will not change as the parliamentary elections approach,” Jokisipilä said.

The poll data was collected while the Garden Helsinki controversy was at its most intense. Despite this, support for the National Coalition Party fell only 0.4 percentage points.

Jokisipilä said the poll showed that the worst possible scenario for the party had not materialised. However, the controversy became directly associated with the prime minister.

“The party came through the Garden controversy reasonably well. How long the effect will remain visible remains to be seen,” he said.

Vuorelma said political controversies involving difficult-to-understand questions related to decision-making often have no significant effect on party support. Although Garden Helsinki dominated media coverage for several weeks, it may have remained somewhat distant from voters, she said.

Support of 17 per cent cannot be framed as a success for the National Coalition Party. It is the party’s lowest figure in years, with a lower result last recorded in 2020.

Jokisipilä also described the figure as historically low for the party but said he did not believe it was pressing the panic button yet.

“If the figures are still the same in January, there may be departures from the National Coalition Party as well. It should be remembered that the party’s voters are relatively loyal compared with those of other parties, and the party can be fairly certain of mobilising its core supporters,” he said.

As the Finns Party’s support rises, it is approaching the National Coalition Party’s position as the second-most popular party in the poll. Vuorelma said the biggest movements in support take place within political blocs, which increases competition for voters inside both the centre-right and red-green blocs.

She said the narrow gap between the two parties could further encourage them to make moves tailored specifically to attract each other’s voters.