Russia’s border closure may signal mobilization, expert says

Russia’s announcement to temporarily close border crossings with Finland, Estonia, and Latvia may indicate plans for military mobilization, according to Jukka Savolainen, network director at the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats.

Savolainen told Yle the move sends a message to Russians that escape to the West is not possible. He noted that closing border points would complicate attempts to flee before mobilization.

“It’s a reminder to Russians that you can’t get out to the West,” Savolainen said. He added it would be logical for mobilization to include broader border closures and public communication to reinforce the perception that exits are blocked.

“And citizens understand that you can’t even escape, so they go to the recruitment office.”

Savolainen linked the border closures to earlier internet restrictions in Russia, suggesting both measures aim to support mobilization efforts. He dismissed speculation that mobilization would be delayed until after autumn parliamentary elections, stating there was no clear reason to postpone it.

“I don’t see why mobilization should be delayed so that an offensive would only start in winter. Usually, offensives are preferred in summer or early autumn,” he said.

The Russian administration is under pressure, Savolainen noted, as the war in Ukraine has gone worse than planned, the economy is faltering, and public support for the government is declining.

“The current leadership feels they must achieve some success and a sense of victory for Russians to sustain national fervor.”

He offered two alternative explanations for the border closures: administrative efficiency, such as reassigning or laying off border guards for cost savings, or a scenario where people are pushed toward the border without Russian authorities present to stop them—though he called the latter unlikely.

Finland’s Foreign Ministry had not received official notification from Russian authorities about the closures. Savolainen questioned whether such a notification would be forthcoming, given Finland had already closed its border to passenger traffic in late 2023.

“When Finland has already announced its side is closed, does Russia even need to announce anything else?” he asked.

Russia announced the temporary closures on Tuesday under a directive from Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, affecting several crossings on the Finnish, Estonian, and Latvian borders.