Petrol price could drop to €1.50 per litre if Iran and US sign peace deal

A potential peace agreement between Iran and the United States could push Finland’s petrol prices down to €1.50–1.60 per litre by autumn, experts tell Yle.

If the deal is signed on Friday in Switzerland, oil shipments will resume through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fuel costs. The 95E grade, which averaged €2.09 per litre in May, may fall to around €1.90 by late summer, according to Hanna Kalenoja, lead transport expert at the Chamber of Commerce.

However, the timeline depends on how quickly shipping restarts. Insurers remain cautious, as coverage terms for vessels in crisis zones—including the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf—are still unclear.

Anssi Kujala, CEO of the Finnish Transport and Logistics Association (SKAL), expects diesel prices for heavy transport to reflect the drop only in autumn. He notes that Finland, unlike Sweden, has not secured EU permission to tax fuel below the bloc’s minimum rates.

Rising costs have already forced some operators out of business. Tomi Noponen, a Kokkola-based transport entrepreneur, shut down his company after fuel expenses consumed 45–50% of his revenue. “There’s no point when you’re digging into your own pocket just to keep going,” he said.