Experts warn against viewing Ukraine war as a distraction from wider Russian ambitions

Danish military analysts have cautioned that Russia’s war in Ukraine should not lull Europe into complacency, as Moscow may seek to escalate elsewhere if faced with defeat.

Anders Puck Nielsen, a naval captain and military analyst at the Danish Defence Academy, told DR’s P1 Morgen that Russia could attempt to “escalate its way out” of trouble rather than accept a loss in Ukraine.

“I am very concerned about what Russia might do in an endgame scenario if it looks like they are losing,” Nielsen said.

Flemming Splidsboel, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, echoed the warning, suggesting Russia may try to relieve pressure in Ukraine by targeting countries supporting Kyiv, particularly in the Baltic Sea region.

“They might think they can ease the pressure in Ukraine by influencing the countries that back Ukraine,” Splidsboel said.

He added that even after the Ukraine war ends, Russia could seek to exploit divisions within NATO by seizing territory in a member state like Estonia, testing the alliance’s unity.

Earlier reporting by DR, citing Nordic intelligence chiefs and senior NATO officers, described the next one to three years as the “absolutely most dangerous” period for a potential military confrontation between Russia and NATO in Europe.

The Baltic Sea holds strategic importance for Russia, which views NATO and EU expansion in the region as a provocation, according to Splidsboel. Nielsen noted that Russia is building military capacity in the area, preparing for a long-term confrontation with Europe, though Ukraine remains its immediate priority.

Russia currently has around 700,000 troops in Ukraine, Nielsen said. Redirecting even a fraction of those forces to the Baltics would overwhelm NATO’s current readiness in the region.

“If they moved some of those troops to a direct confrontation with NATO in the Baltics, for example, we would be under immense pressure. We are not prepared to face 50,000 or 100,000 Russian soldiers there—not even close,” he said.

Russia’s ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, rejected claims of hostile intent toward European nations, stating: “It is not Russia that threatens NATO countries—quite the opposite.”