Russia building new garrison near Finnish border, researcher says

A new military garrison under construction in Petrozavodsk near the Finnish border is part of Russia’s long-planned military reorganization, according to Jyri Lavikainen, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, speaking on Yle’s morning program.

Satellite imagery shows Russia has begun building the facility in Karelia, with estimates suggesting up to 15,000 ground troops could eventually be stationed in the region once all planned changes are implemented.

Lavikainen said the garrison is tied to the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District, a move Russia framed as a counter to Finland’s NATO membership. “Russia assesses that it must prepare for war on this strategic axis,” he said.

However, he downplayed the immediate impact on Finnish security, noting that Russia would likely draw forces from multiple districts in any conflict, as it did before its invasion of Ukraine. “Even if Russia has long-term goals, its primary focus right now is entirely on the war in Ukraine. Russia does not have unlimited resources,” Lavikainen added.

He emphasized that the outcome of the Ukraine war will influence Russia’s priorities in Finland’s vicinity. “Finland’s direction is higher on Russia’s priority list than it was ten years ago, though it is not the top priority,” he said. A sovereign and viable Ukraine would remain Russia’s chief concern, but a weaker outcome for Kyiv could shift Moscow’s focus toward other potential conflicts, including near Finland.

Lavikainen noted that Finland and NATO have already accounted for Russian military buildup in the region as part of their defense planning, which does not rely solely on the actions of a potential adversary.