Russian military buildup along Nordic and Baltic borders revealed by satellite imagery

New satellite images show Russia is expanding military bases and deploying combat forces along its borders with Nordic and Baltic states in preparation for a potential war with European nations around the Baltic Sea, according to a Danish Broadcasting Corporation (DR) investigation.

Nordic intelligence chiefs and senior officers in NATO and regional defense forces warn that if Russia chooses to attack, Denmark and its European allies could face a dangerous race against time. These sources, who would lead defense efforts in a conflict and have access to classified assessments of Russian military preparations, spoke to DR over 18 months for the documentary War Plan Europe.

General Major Brian Nissen, a Danish NATO officer set to command up to 150,000 troops in the defense of the Baltics and parts of Poland, described a potential conflict as an “existential war” that would extend beyond traditional battlefields. “This would be a war fought in all domains—on land, in the air, at sea, in space, and in cyberspace,” he told DR. “It would be about whether our way of life and our democracy can survive.”

While none of DR’s sources indicate Russia has decided to go to war—most of its forces remain engaged in Ukraine—the preparations for a possible military confrontation with European nations are underway. If conflict erupts, intelligence assessments suggest it would most likely begin in the Baltic Sea region, a strategic crossroads where NATO and Russian forces stand in close proximity.

Satellite images obtained by DR in collaboration with Swedish broadcaster SVT, Norway’s NRK, and Estonian outlet Delfi—and analyzed by former Finnish military intelligence officer Marko Eklund—reveal Russia is constructing new bases and expanding existing ones. Eklund estimates the buildup is designed to accommodate tens of thousands of additional combat troops along Europe’s northern frontier, from northern Norway and Finland to southern Lithuania.

Once fighting in Ukraine subsides, Russia plans to station roughly 115,000 soldiers—primarily combat troops—near its western borders, Eklund said. Within weeks, it could redeploy hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened forces from elsewhere in the country to the Nordic and Baltic periphery. “This is a threat of the highest degree that we must take seriously,” Swedish Military Intelligence chief Lieutenant General Thomas Nilsson told SVT after reviewing the imagery.

The investigation also drew on NATO documents from last year outlining potential war scenarios, observations from large-scale alliance exercises in Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, and threat assessments from seven regional intelligence agencies over recent years. Together, they depict a growing risk.

Russian forces are not only increasing troop numbers and equipment but restructuring their units. Moscow is shifting from smaller brigade formations (typically 4,000 soldiers) to larger divisions (around 10,000), a change sources say signals preparation for large-scale warfare. “Divisions are built to sustain prolonged combat with long-range artillery support,” Norwegian Defense Chief General Eirik Kristoffersen told NRK. “They are also integrating lessons from drone warfare in Ukraine. We expect a different Russian military at our border once the war in Ukraine ends.”

The concern among DR’s sources extends beyond current troop movements to how rapidly the threat could evolve. “In the worst case,” one source with access to confidential NATO assessments said, “we could face a Russia that—