Icelandic parliamentary elections could reshape political landscape in 2024

The political landscape in Iceland could witness significant transformations in the upcoming 2024 parliamentary elections. Recent polling data indicates that three sitting ministers may lose their seats in the Althing, the nation’s parliament.

If the results of the latest poll hold true, only seven political parties would secure representation. These include the Social Democratic Alliance, the Independence Party, Reform Party, People’s Party, Central Party, Progressive Party, and the Pirate Party. The poll suggests that the Independence Party would retain strong support, particularly in the Southwest and Southern electoral constituencies.

The Social Democratic Alliance appears to be leading in most districts, with a notable 25.5% support in the Southern Reykjavik district and 28.7% in the Northern Reykjavik district. This could translate to 14 representatives for the Alliance, including candidates Dagur B. Eggertsson and Þórður Snær Júlíusson, with the latter having indicated he will not take a seat, allowing another candidate to enter.

The Reform Party is positioned in second place in several districts but does not lead any. Meanwhile, the Independence Party shows a 18.4% national support, also earning around 13 seats, but a candidate placed fifth in one district may not be elected.

The Progressive Party, meanwhile, is predicted to lose about eight seats, resulting in only five members in parliament. This would notably impact the current parliamentary presence of their leaders. Conversely, the People’s Party is expected to gain strength, particularly in the South where they show substantial support.

The Pirate Party is projected to secure one representative, while the Left-Green Movement is anticipated to be entirely absent from the parliament, alongside several other smaller parties that do not meet the threshold for representation.