International team studies climate change and glacial retreat impacts on earthquakes and volcanoes in Iceland

An international team of scientists is investigating the impact of climate change and glacial retreat on earthquakes and volcanic activity in Iceland. It is hypothesized that the melting glaciers may result in the formation of two to three times more magma beneath the surface than previously existed. This increased magma generation appears to be already occurring.

Freysteinn Sigmundsson, a geophysicist, indicates that based on modeling, magma currently forming beneath Iceland can be estimated at two to three times the levels seen before glacial retreat began. The research is focusing on four volcanic systems: Katla, Askja, Grímsvötn, and Bárðarbunga. This three-year project commenced on April 1, 2023.

The research also aims to study how glacial changes affect crustal movements and the implications of these processes for seismic activity and volcanism. It is established that Iceland’s glaciers have been diminishing since 1890, with projections suggesting they could mostly vanish within a few hundred years.

Historically, increased volcanic activity has followed periods of glacial retreat. For example, after the last ice age retreated roughly ten thousand years ago, there was a prolonged era of significant volcanic activity.

In precise measurements taken over recent decades, it has been determined that substantial land uplift, approximately 20 to 30 millimeters annually, is occurring in Iceland due to glacial shrinkage. This reduction in pressure beneath the surface can facilitate the formation of additional magma.

While increased magma generation might lead to heightened volcanic activity in Iceland, it remains uncertain when or if this magma will reach the surface. The research aims to enhance understanding of these geological processes, which could have significant implications for future volcanic eruptions.